The illusion of safety
I have recently been reviewing various proposals for making the financial system "safer". Most of them involve some kind of full reserve banking, while one (Gary Gorton's) looks at improving the safety of the shadow banking system without subjecting it to the same rules as licensed.... Read More..
The 4 Crucial Beliefs of Successful Investors
If you don’t believe in yourself as an investor and have absolute faith in your methodology, trading the markets will be like trying to nail Jello to the wall... Read more...
If you make money every trade you will eventually be broke.
The benefit of being around the futures capital of world, Chicago, has been invaluable to me. I have seen many people come and go and it has helped me to realize the mistakes a little faster. It never prevented me from the mistakes but lessened their amplitude and frequency.. Read more..
Good Trading Psychology Maketh The Trader
Most new traders believe that as long as they have a profitable trading system they will make money in the markets. If that were the case then surely most new traders would succeed. We all know though that this is not the case. Failure rates run at 95%. In currency trading the failure rate is... Read more..
Common Errors That Cost a Fortune, from Victor Niederhoffer
What are the common errors, the improprieties, the lack of attention to proper mores, the p's and q of trading that cause so much havoc and could be rectified with a proper formal approach? Here are a few that cost one fortunes over time. Read more
Ethics Matter: A Conversation with Dambisa Moyo
JULIA KENNEDY: Good evening and welcome to the Carnegie Council. When it comes to tough analysis of developing and emerging economies, Dambisa Moyo has lots of credibility. She was born and raised in Zambia, which makes her one of the few Africans speaking out about these issues in Western... Read more
Reid Hoffman Revealed: Bloomberg Game Changers
Watch it Here
IT IS NICE TO SEE GLENN HUBBARD ABANDON THE FRUITLESS DEFENSE OF ROMNEY'S PLANS AS ARITHMETICALLY COHERENT
Shorter Glenn Hubbard: Mitt Romney's plans don't add up, but because of (a) the Iraq War that I said would be really cheap (in contrast to Larry Lindsey, who said it might well be expensive), (b) the 2001 Bush tax cut that I said would not bust the budget (in contrast to Alan Greenspan, who said that we would come to rue the day that the Republican Party... Read more
It is both true that we are not as wealthy as we thought we were and that there's a lot of joblessness in the United States, but I struggle to grasp a model in which the former causes the latter. Imagine a reverse situation. A town full of working-class people sees its unemployment rate suddenly shoot up from 11 percent to 27 percent. Concurrently, it turns out .. Read more
A Rush of Dopamine in the Head: Kiip Raises $11M to Monetize Achievements.
Our feet are now firmly planted in the mobile revolution, and we still haven’t figured out how to make money from these damn phones. The obvious course of action – paying cold, hard cash in exchange for software – has but one barrier to entry, but it’s a doozy... Read more
Schmidt and Thiel @ Fortunes Brainstorm Tech (Video.)
Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google, and Peter Thiel, technology investor and entrepreneur, participated in a lively debate at Fortune Brainstorm Tech in Aspen, CO, about the future of technology, and so much more. Fortune's Adam Lashinsky.. Watch Video
Does Syria Want a War?
We know for sure that Syria intentionally shot down a Turkish — and thus protected by NATO — warplane in its airspace. We also know that Syria is comfortable.. Read more
You Are Now About to Witness the Strength of Street Knowledge
The headline of this story is the first line Dr. Dre says in “Straight Outta Compton,” and I often think more people could use a good dose of street knowledge, especially considering the putrid wave of self-affirmation bullshit that has.. Read more
Stabilizing prices is immoral
The first thing to recognize is that a policy of enforced “price stability”, whether implemented in terms of levels or rates, is a form of goverment-provided social insurance, just like unemployment or disability benefits.. read more
Remarks to the 12th Annual International Seminar on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector by Mohamed El Erian
Thank you so much for inviting me to this wonderful event. I always love coming back to Washington, D.C., especially as it brings back fond memories of my 15 years on the staff of the International Monetary Fund. It is even more special to participate in an international seminar that is being held under the joint auspices of the IMF, the Federal Reserve Board and .. Read More
Valley Elite to Nasdaq: Either Greifeld Is Done or We Are
The recurring topic on stage at last week’s D10 conference was the legacy of Steve Jobs. But the topic at dinners and in hallways and over poker games was Facebook’s bungled IPO.... Read More
"The End Game: 2012 And 2013 Will Usher In The End" - The Scariest Presentation Ever?
If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn't. The founder of.... Read more
Robert J. Shiller's speech to Harvard finance graduates
Best of luck to you as you leave the academy for your chosen professions in finance. Over the course of your careers, Wall Street and its kindred institutions will need you. Your training in financial theory, economics, mathematics, and statistics will serve you well. But your lessons... Read more
Peter Schiff: The Real Crash
I first came to national attention back in 2008 and 2009 when the housing and credit markets imploded. I became known as the guy that..... Read More
What caused the financial crisis? The Big Lie goes viral.
I have a fairly simple approach to investing: Start with data and objective evidence to determine the dominant elements driving the market action.. Read the rest here
How Europe’s banking crises threaten the eurozone
Waving The White Flag
For quite some time in this letter I have been making the case that for the eurozone to survive, the European Central Bank would have to print more money than any of us can now imagine. That the sentiment among European leaders was... Read More, u must read more
Gold-dollar relationship reminiscent of 2008
Gold futures rebounded by $1.30 on Thursday to end at $1,595.50 after falling 3.1% this week, the worst week for gold since mid-March.... Read more
Time to read some Minsky
The current turmoil on the Stock Market—and especially the sudden collapse of many once high-flyers—has taken a lot of people by surprise.
One person who, were he alive today, wouldn’t be the least bit surprised, is Hyman Minsky, who predicted that events like this.. Read more here
Interview: Ray Dalio, David Rubenstein, Steve Schwartzman(Video)
Some great thinkers and actors in the market. this is from deal book but i found it on The big Picture. A must watch, check it out here
Bond vigilantes and the currency relief valve
he last post by Randall Wray is an interesting one because it points out how the world has changed since the end of the gold standard and why the sovereign debt crisis is centered in the euro zone... Read More
TRAIN YOUR BRAIN FOR SUCCESS:
“We’ve learned that human beings operate best when they know where they are going, and that the destination is one they have decided upon themselves.” Read more..
The Next Industrial Revolution
Large, centrally-directed systems are inherently fragile. Think of the human body; a spontaneous, unexpected blow to the head can kill an otherwise healthy creature; all the healthy cells and tissue in the legs, arms, torso and so forth killed through dependency on the brain’s functionality. Interdependent systems are only ever as strong as their weakest critical link, and very often a critical link can fail through nothing more... Read More
Bird Brains: From Austerity to Prosperity
A Presentation from session on Euro Issues from 11th International Post Keynesian Conference. See it here
How Long Can These Markets Run on QE ?
Today marks the end of the month and quarter. Hence, it is a good time to look over the key economic and market data, and try to assess where we are in the overall cycle.
The data itself suggests several contradictory factors are driving markets. Durable goods orders — those big ticket items like autos, washers, and .... Read more..
CMEDY: Dude, Where’s My Company?
The secrets of China Medical Technologies are beginning to surface and they confirm what many openly suspect: The framework of its corporate control has long since collapsed and management has... Read more
Cover Ups Are Worse Than Vanishing Data: The Facts About the FEC’s Data Downloads.
Yves here. The revelation at Alternet by Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgensen and Jie Chen (and discussed at NC) that information about certain large donations in the 2007-8 election cycle had disappeared from the FEC website, and the removals could not possibly be corrections, appears to have led to a miraculous restoration of said information this morning. While that’s welcome, it also appears to.. Read more
The Treasury and Central Bank – The Contingent Institutional Approach
We wrapped up our series on Understanding the Modern Monetary System, but I wanted to post this final piece of the puzzle since it closes the loop on some important topics surrounding the institutional design of the monetary system. I also wanted to give a special thanks to JKH, Dr Brett.. Read more
The Reflexive Libertarianism of Mainstream Economists, as Applied to the Analysis of Conditional Cash Transfers
I haven’t been blogging at all in the last few weeks, and I shouldn’t be now, because I am racing deadlines to complete work on a forthcoming report on child labor for the ILO (International Labor Organization). In doing this, though, I’ve repeatedly come across.... read more
Carl Icahn Is Unimpressed With Goldman’s Efforts To Fight Off Carl Icahn
Carl Icahn says he isn’t paying a bill from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., on principle. … “These guys were hired to keep me from buying the company at $30 and they failed,” Mr. Icahn said in an interview. “But they are now demanding $18 million for having done nothing.”
Goldman’s suit says the bank “fully performed all of its obligations.”... Read more
The state of the national economy is pretty bad, which means that on average the state of local economies in the United States is also pretty bad. But.. read more
China Goes Where Obamacare Refused to Tread: Takes on Big Pharma on High Priced Drugs
Emerging economies are increasingly flexing their muscles over stratospherically-priced life-saving drugs. And before the Big Pharma defenders start caviling about how the high cost of drug development is squeezing profits, it’s hard to be sympathetic. First, the Federal government pays for a staggering amount of ... Read More
WASHINGTON, DC – The German government’s reaction to newly elected French President François Hollande’s call for more growth-oriented policies was to say that there should be no change in the eurozone’s austerity programs. Rather, growth-supporting measures, such as.. Read More
Here's What The Smartest Investor I Know Thinks Will Happen To Facebook Stock
I was talking about Facebook stock recently with one of the smartest investors I know.
The investor has owned Facebook stock for years--since it was a small private company.
But the investor has also been shoveling his shares out the door for years. So much so that he.. Read more
'Hedge Fund Market Wizards - How Winning Traders Win' - Interview with Jack Schwager author of the Market Wizard's books.
This week sees the publication of ‘Hedge Fund Market Wizards - How Winning Traders Win’, the long-awaited addition to the brilliant and hugely influential ... Read more
Where Are the Super Heroe's?
In our March letter we discussed the low level of volatility in the stock market, and wondered if the perception that the European debt crisis was contained was correct. We didn’t think so... Read the rest
Europe is driving full-tilt, foot on the pedal, into a brick wall
I see the G8 has a brilliant solution to the problems of the eurozone. Let me show you how to create employment – the Brussels way. .. Read more here
Spain: EU estimates for contraction now considerably deeper
This is not a good day for Spain. The day began with the EU Commission revising its estimates for the Spanish economy. The contraction is now expected to be considerably deeper. Rather than contract 1% as the EU previously projected, now it is... Read more
The Dollar and Manipulation Control the Market
Over the weekend I had an interesting conversation with a local trader. We typically meet a few times a year to share our market outlooks, new trading tools and techniques, and usually finish our session off in a debate about the US market manipulation and how to trade around it... Read more here
Phil Falcone Reveals Genius New Plan (Update)
LightSquared is a wireless venture that seeks to create “convenient connectivity for all.” But those of you who’ve been keeping up know that .. Read more
JP Morgan Loss Bomb Confirms That It’s Time to Kill VaR
One of the amusing bits of the hastily arranged JP Morgan conference call on its $2 billion and growing “hedge” losses and related first quarter earning release was the way the heretofore loud and proud bank was revealed to have feet of clay.. Read more