As of right now markets really haven't even begun to price in a real EU break down. This is mainly because of the leeway the ECB's LTRO gave markets. That is over now and there's no amount of liquidity that can plug the size of the hole that real capital flight will leave. This is why the ECB, Fed and other central banks around the world haven't gone commando on this crisis. The fiscal authorities have one last shot to get it right. I don't doubt that rumors will abound on Thursday and Friday but tomorrow and Wednesday are a toss up.
Your best bet is to sit on your hands this whole week I think but I did do a little trading today.
The $cl_f trade I put on Friday and blogged about yesterday stopped out almost instantly after I clicked the "publish" button on the blog post. That was enough to sit me on my hands and that's what I did until the 1 pm hour. Then I shorted the $dx_f @ 82.635 for pure technical reasons and I have a tight stop. I'm still holding $tcbi and $fb.... $dg keeps popping up on my radar and I'd like to buy some weakness there. Other than that I'm keeping powder dry for whatever comes out of the EU summit. Hopefully they won't continue their own version of "The Ballad Of The Dead Ladies"
Until next time traders, stay low and keep firing!
In dedication to the EU nations in preparation for their summit, a song that sums up what's before you right now.