And no one dose this worse than the bear that holds out too long and buys @ exactly the wrong time. He buys with the late crowd after seeing the market go up and up and up they feel left out and they abandon their bear claws and jump in.
Obviously you'd rather be the first bear where you make some profit no matter how small. Wouldn't we all!
Well this could be the time for the first bear.
We have housing data this week. Most important in my opinion (because they're leading indicators) is housing starts and housing permits. Both come out @ 8:30 am EST tomorrow. Above 715 thousand starts and 700 thousand permits and you can change the Italicized "Could Be" to "is."
I suspect much of this markets buoyancy rests on the hope that housing is getting better. There is a lot of loose money around but loose money isn't free money. It has to be paid back, so the moral hazard is only skin deep. The first sight of blood and it rushes to the door like everybody else. And like everybody else if the door is too crowded it starts looking at the windows and if the blood starts flowing to heavy.... It will jump.
That said, if housing numbers are not to far off expectations (715 thousand starts and 695 thousand permits) then it won't draw much blood. Barring any crazy revisions meeting expectations is good. This market is ignoring bad news, rewarding expectations, and really really rewarding expectation beats. The market is where it is, right or wrong, it's where it is. We respect that above our thoughts and biases. When it comes to the market we hear and we obey.. Around here we try to hear fast and obey even faster.
Good luck traders, And happy hunting!!